Indeed you have seen or heard people who claim to have the secret formula to get rich with sports betting on the internet. The importance of value in betting is the discussing topic for today. Many who promise to have the secret of betting. And divinatory power. To make you win a lot of money in exchange for subscribing to their payment account.
But don’t be fooled. The reality is much simpler than that.
The truth is that the key in sports betting does not depend on a magic trick but patience, effort, and above all, knowing how to find value in bets and take advantage of it.
Next, we explain what value bets are, why they are so important, and how to identify them to benefit from betting on m22bet.
THE ODDS AND THE PROBABILITY
All sports betting is governed by the fee that each bookmaker offers, which is the money they will pay for each dollar that a player invests. But, what are books based on to establish the value of their odds? The answer is straightforward: in probability.
Let’s see an example to understand it:
As far as the point is concerned about The importance of value in betting. Let’s say that Team A plays against Team B, right now the leader against the bottom Team. In a context like the current one, the mattress club is the clear favorite, so the probability of it winning the match in normal situations could be set at 75%. So, if the bookmaker applied the odds corresponding to Team A victory based on that probability, the odds value would be 1/0.75 = 1.33.
Although the reality is different since the odds are always lower due to the bookmaker’s commission (as they say, the bank always wins), it is highly recommended to take advantage of the promotions offered by bookmakers to obtain more profit.
Leaving aside the percentage that the bookmaker takes, the odds of a bet are calculated with this formula: 1 / probability (expressed in decimals).
WHAT IS A VALUE BET?
With that said, let’s look at the concept of value betting or the value of a bet.
The value is the way to express what is known in English as the +EV, which means “positive expected value,” also known as overvaluing. Simply put, a value bet refers to a bet that is paying out more money than it should.
A value bet is one where the odds set by the bookmaker are above the probability of it happening.
It is as simple as this. But let’s go back to the example from before to see it more clearly:
We have set the probability that Team X wins at 75%, a quota of 1.33. Let’s imagine that we go to a bookmaker and for the victory of Team X they have a price of 1.50. We would be in front of a value bet from 1.50 > 1.33, so we will benefit from this selection. That is the famous value.
WHY IT IS SO IMPORTANT THAT A BET HAS VALUE
Thanks to finding that extra value that we detect, we can benefit from it and increase our chances of success. In the end, it’s math.
If we follow a good betting methodology, choosing well those odds with great value, we will maximize our chances of generating profits in the long term. That is the strategy that tipsters generally follow to recommend bets with a lot of value.
HOW TO FIND VALUE IN SPORTS BETTING
As germane with The importance of value in betting. An interesting formula consists of multiplying the odds by the estimated probability To determine if a bet has value. If the product is greater than 100, we will be facing a value bet.
So, following the previous example, if we multiply the probability of 75% and the odds of 1.50. The result gives us 112.5, which confirms that we are dealing with a value bet.
Just as there is a formula to calculate the value of a bet, there is no foolproof method to detect value bets. Identifying the best bets with value will depend on our daily work, following a good strategy, and being attentive to fluctuating odds.
Also read: The Doctor of Thuganomics
However, we leave some essential points to take into account to identify the bets with the best value:
- Party studies. Doing a previous analysis of each match will help us to be able to mark the probabilities and detect overvalued odds properly.
- Statistics. Tracking team and player stats will also give us an edge in recognizing value-added bets.
- External information. Current news can give us very useful data that changes the odds and exposes the value of the odds.
- Take advantage of promotions. Many bookmakers frequently offer bonuses and promotions that give extra value to bets.
- Experience. The longer you have been in the world of betting, the faster and more efficiently you will find those “bargains” that books sometimes offer. That’s why experienced tipsters and handicappers provide the best value bets.
- Control several books. Having an account in several bookmakers and comparing will detect the odds with the most value beforehand.